CURRENCY WARS RICKARDS PDF

As of this writing, there are , reported infections and 15, deaths worldwide. Over the next few days, you may be certain that those numbers will be significantly higher. This will be worse than the dot-com collapse of —01 and worse than the Great Recession and global financial crisis of — The questions for economists are whether the lost output will be permanent or temporary and whether U. Some lost expenditure may just be a timing difference. The skipped dinner is a permanent loss.

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As of this writing, there are , reported infections and 15, deaths worldwide. Over the next few days, you may be certain that those numbers will be significantly higher. This will be worse than the dot-com collapse of —01 and worse than the Great Recession and global financial crisis of — The questions for economists are whether the lost output will be permanent or temporary and whether U.

Some lost expenditure may just be a timing difference. The skipped dinner is a permanent loss. This suggests that much of the coronavirus impact will consist of permanent losses, not timing differences.

More important is the question of whether growth returns to trend by next year or follows a new lower trend. This is unknown, but the result will be as much psychological as policy driven. The Fed has also launched massive amounts of quantitative easing.

In addition, they have guaranteed or offered credit facilities to banks, primary dealers, money market funds, the municipal bond market and commercial paper issuers so far.

Now the central bank has taken the unprecedented step of committing to buy as many U. Still, they may have done things exactly backward. Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, says that the Fed should have focused on payment system problems and liquidity first but should not have cut rates. Interest rates were already quite low. El-Erian argues the Fed should have saved their rate cuts in case they are needed more acutely in the weeks ahead.

Too late now. The interest rate bullets were fired. Negotiations stalled this morning as Democrats want to insert provisions that would give tax credits to the solar and wind industry, give more power to unions and introduce new emissions standards for the airline industry.

Once again, I need to emphasize the point: The economic impact of coronavirus could be devastating. If consumers get used to not spending and decide that increased savings and debt reduction are the best ways to prepare for another virus or natural disaster, then velocity will fall and growth will be weak no matter how much money the Fed prints or the Congress spends.

The bottom line is that these spending bills provide spending but they do not provide stimulus. And right now consumers are hunkered down. It may be that the last of the big spenders just left town.

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Currency Wars

Thats less a reflection on the tone of James Rickards writingthough somewhat alarmist, hes a lawyer and finance professional, not a Tim LaHaye-like rapture peddlerthan the worldviews his book will be used to support. Rickards is an interesting guy. The problem is that this makes his pro-gold argument seem better sourced than it actually is. These debts were originated by inexperienced local bankers around the United States and repackaged in the billions of dollars by the likes of Lehman Brothers before they went bust.

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Jim Rickards Blog

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